Sandra - in learning with the world

record the reading, thinking and life in internet. 阅读,聆听,思考的路上,大家一起走。

10/25/2007

阅读:无即是有:360安全卫士的商业逻辑 | It Talks-魏武挥的blog

无即是有:360安全卫士的商业逻辑 | It Talks-魏武挥的blog:


奇虎的周鸿祎早年是做3721的,这个插件互联网上很多人都知道,属于所谓的流氓软件性质:一旦装上很难删除且不断招来广告。3721的公开招牌是 “用中文上网”,也就是说,你再也不用记www.sina.com.cn这样一种古怪的英文不像英文数字不像数字的名字,你只要轻松输入“新浪”即可。

早期的3721推广是向网站收费的,模式很简单:在越来越多的用户使用“新浪”这两个字登陆新浪网后,www.sina.com.cn就不得不为 “新浪”这样一种中文域名买单。我曾服务过的一家财经网站也花了一点小钱买下了它的中文域名。这个做法虽然有点挟用户以号令网站,但也不失为一条妙计。

有可能是CNNIC推行中文域名的原因,也有可能是其它,3721转向了,它成了一个广告终端:装了3721插件的浏览器会弹出广告。而且,为了能让这个终端长期存在于用户计算机中,3721使用了反反安装的技术:用户很难把3721从计算机中删除。

周氏后来忽然转向做了专灭3721这类的流氓软件的克星:奇虎360。这是一个反流氓软件,但本质上(从商业角度出发),它和3721却有着惊人的相似之处。

3721诉诸的是技术力量,让普通用户难以卸载。(--这样的招数,正常技术人员是不会想来的.大多的商业人士也不会这么来想.他的反向思维能力,实在应用娴熟.--)奇虎360则诉诸于恐惧,普通用户因为恐慌于中了流氓软件的招而自主地不去卸载。道德当然不能相提并论,但归根到底都是一个目的:占领用户计算机。

桌面战略已经不是什么新鲜事了,得用户计算机者得天下。借着占领了用户计算机的windows系统,IE轻而易举就地就打败了先手的 Netscape浏览器。但在今天,软件web化日益高涨,IM工具争战正酣,能够既不为用户反对又可以轻松占领大多数用户的桌面的,安全软件是一个非常 好的选择(--想起了自己2005年年底那会曾经和合作互伙伴探讨的这种桌面策略的可能.现在看来我们想要得领域依然没有被强势占领,虽然相对于安全来讲,也没有那么大众,但是果然就没有可能么?今天依然在继续思考这种扩展的可能.--)

我非常佩服周氏的公关手腕和技巧,当然,这和他的出身也有关系。一个一手制作了3721的人反过来一记回马枪专杀3721,本身就是可供新闻炒作的 热点题材。最重要的是,诉诸恐惧的广告效果是极强的(--令人想起某些健康方面用品的策略,真的是非常有效的手段,但是魏没有提炼出来的时候,我还真的没有意识到这背后的根本就在这一句话上.受教了,多谢!这个某些方面,我可以学学.--):短短一年,360安全卫士装机量增长12倍,而随软件“推荐”的卡巴斯基杀毒系统(这个软件之前进入 国内市场两年有余却业绩惨淡)也暴涨3倍,超过金山,仅次瑞星,成了国内防毒市场的老二。

但是,周氏的运营技巧则更胜一筹:暂时不切入杀毒市场,始终保持奇虎360的轻盈。只有轻盈,才有可能把360打造成一个平台。以周氏的背景,弄点 钱来开发杀毒软件甚至是买下一家杀毒软件公司,都不是不可能的事情。但奇虎没有杀毒软件,反而使得360可以有更多的选择,甚至未来它选择今天看似冤家的 瑞星合作也不是没有可能。或者也可以借着瑞星压卡巴斯基。商业上只有永恒的利益,并没有永恒的敌人(或朋友)。这一点,周氏是老玩家了。

从这个角度而言,较之瑞星,360已经占领了主动位置。它的成本相对低廉,每做一个动作,杀毒软件们就必须付出更多的成倍的成本来跟进。为了应对奇 虎现下盟友卡巴斯基的进攻,瑞星新的2008版本搞了个三个月免费,卡巴斯基立即跟进宣布免费一年,金山索性以网游公司为名去上市。杀毒软件们斗得厉害, 但360安全卫士始终占据着制高点:因为它是一个独立的软件,一个可以和杀毒软件自由组合的防流氓软件的系统。(--这当然是个很好的产品策略.但是这种产品策略的玩法也是需要很多先决条件,而且是高端的先决条件的.除了取势的巧妙,用户的深度依赖恐怕是最根本的.这个显然是来自他良好的用户感觉或者用户心理的把握和了解.突然让我想起了史玉柱的游戏.但是果然有了用户的深度依赖的时候,似乎产品策略也一下子多了起来.只是,他获得用户的手段非常.此依然是最根本.轻盈只是在还没有实力全面交火时候的一种方便斡旋的手段.我想.--)而瑞星的卡卡,却始终有瑞星杀毒软件的附着 物的感觉,包括诺顿、NOD32在内的众多杀毒软件公司们,恐怕也很难和卡卡合作得起来。

更可一窥360野心的是:好(恶)评软件排行。恶评软件也就算了,虽然商业和道德有时候不一定能关联起来,但以周氏的身份,不见得会以恶评软件去要 挟软件公司给点好处。但好评就很难说了。网上的某种推测是:安全卫士360做得越大,这个渠道的力量就越强,各种软件公司就越需要和360保持良好关系以 求得好评之名。和当年一样,周氏可以挟用户以号令群雄,这次,不是网站,而是软件公司了。

当然,这是后话了。




标签: , , ,

10/24/2007

Top 10 Bootstrapping Tips

对我来说非常有用的一篇,容我再消化消化后,写写自己的感悟.

Top 10 Bootstrapping Tips

Written by Bernard Lunn / October 23, 2007 / 1 comments

There is renewed interest in bootstrapping, if only because lower costs now make this a bit easier and younger entrepreneurs can live more cheaply. Here then is my 10 point bootstrapping primer:

1. It does NOT mean self-funded. The real bootstrappers put in peanuts of their own money. Bootstrapping means funding with customer revenues.

2. Bootstrapping is NOT compatible with the “build traffic and worry about monetization later” idea. Get external capital to enable that. Bootstrapping is usually for selling to businesses, not to consumers. Just maybe, you can bootstrap a consumer advertising play using Amazon S3/EC2 infrastructure and Adsense (or an alternative for revenue). But has anybody done that, really?

3. It is very hard work, stressful and uncertain. Don’t start down this road unless you are really prepared for this.

4. It is messy. You get pulled by clients in different directions. Managed well, this is great and you get real world input. Managed badly, you end up without a coherent product or strategy. My rule is: 3 custom jobs to get to a product, iterating and abstracting each time. It's like sailing - you know the direction, but you tack left and right to catch the wind.

5. You need a sign over your desk to remind you about your 3 top priorities - cash flow, cash flow and cash flow.

6. Don’t bootstrap and then raise VC. The VC will stress how much he admires your guts and determination (while secretly thinking “phew, glad I don’t have to do that”) but the current revenues won’t impact the valuation nearly as much as you think. You either get valued on your revenues or your plan, but the mix is hard. Bootstrap and then sell. With your own capital and that track record you are in the game.

7. Don’t trade equity for services. It's really just a VC round in disguise and the better vendors won’t do it (they don’t need to), so you get weak vendors who drop you when they get a cash deal. With some smaller, entrepreneurial services vendors, it's good to do cash plus an equity “kicker” as motivation - to get the best people. Whether this is onshore or offshore does not make any difference.

8. You can get external sales people on a mostly success basis, but you have to put up some cash to be credible and you have to give up big % and with evergreen clauses so the sales person gets some annuity revenue. This way you get the sales people who know how to pick the low hanging fruit quickly and easily - which is what you need.

9. This is different from building a prototype proof of concept to get funding. That is viable and you can do it by moonlighting, or friends and family money, but it is not customer funding and not bootstrapping. It is a “self funding bridge to VC”. Without a track record that's what you have to do. With a track record, VC will fund from day one.

10. Learn how to juggle credit card offers. As long as you really do have revenue and just a working capital cash flow gap (between getting paid and payments you have to make) this is quite viable. You can keep getting those 0% intro offers and then swap around. It takes a bit of organization and effort, but it's the best free money out there. Then a few years later you can get a bank line of credit.

Conclusion

Most of the software industry started by bootstrapping - think Microsoft, Oracle, SAP. A few online ventures such as eBay also worked this way; they took VC money, but did not need to. On the other hand, no tradditional media business that I know ever got bootstrapped. It is horses for courses. Some businesses are ideal for bootstrapping and some not so. More importantly, some entrepreneurs are ideally suited to bootstrapping and others are not.


标签: , , ,

10/20/2007

Twine: The First Mainstream Semantic Web App?

看这篇文章不禁想起自己当初开始做2。0时候和同事的争论,我坚持整合的思路,他坚持自己做所有的思路。不同的思路发展下去就有不同的现在。但我依然认为人的聚合,内容的聚合,工具的聚合,是很有必要前景,当然聚好了,也很不容易的。
姑且看看这家怎么聚合的。

Twine: The First Mainstream Semantic Web App?

Written by Richard MacManus / October 18, 2007 / 24 comments

On Friday Radar Networks is announcing a new Semantic Web application called Twine. Founder Nova Spivack showed me a demo today of the new app, which he described as a "knowledge networking" application. It has aspects of social networking, wikis, blogging, knowledge management systems - but its defining feature is that it's built with Semantic Web technologies. Spivack told me that Twine aims to bring a usable and scalable interface to the long-promised dream of the Semantic Web.

Spivack went as far as to claim that Twine will be "the first mainstream Semantic Web application" - and it's certainly fair to say that we've heard lots of theory about the Semantic Web ever since Tim Berners-Lee defined it, but as yet there have been very few large scale success stories (if any). Will Twine finally be the Semantic Web app that breaks through? Let's find out more...

First some background: Nova Spivack has an illustrious history in the Semantic Web and AI business, having worked for both AI legend Ray Kurzweil and tech guru Danny Hillis (Thinking Machines). The genesis for Twine, said Spivack, came from an R&D project about 5 years ago, which turned into a research project, then a Series A round with Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen in 2006. As of now the Twine team is 30 people working from San Francisco -- and they're finally ready to unveil their new mainstream Semantic Web product.

What is Twine?

The aim of Twine is to enable people to share knowledge and information. At first glance it is very much like Wikipedia, but there is a whole lot more smarts to the system. Spivack described it to me as "knowledge networking"- i.e. it aims to connect people with each other "for a purpose". It's not based around socializing, but to share and organize information you're interested in. Using Twine, you can add content via wiki functionality (there are many post types), you can email content into the system, and "collect" something (as an object, e.g. a book object). The screenshots below show of this in action -- note that the product itself isn't available just yet, as it's in private testing.

Other features of Twine include: RSS feeds to track all kinds of things (topics, events, search, etc); commenting and viewing related things, sharing tags, and more. Also, and Marc Canter will like this, Twine users will be able to import and export their own data. Nova said that Twine will be an open platform - there will be a SPARQL API and a REST API.

Semantic Graph

Where Twine is differentiated from the likes of wikipedia is that its underlying data structure is entirely Semantic Web. Spivack told me that the following Semantic Web technologies are being used: RDF, OWL, SPARQL, XSL. Also he said that they plan to use GRDDL in the near future. Spivack had an interesting term for what Twine is doing with Semantic Web technologies, riffing off the Facebook Social Graph. Spivack is calling Twine a "Semantic Graph", which he says will map relationships to both people and topics. So Twine's Semantic Graph actually integrates the Social Graph. Spivack said that his company has patents pending on this.

Who will use it?

So who is Twine aimed at? Spivack said that it's aimed at professionals and teams. Also he said content providers are expressing interest, because their data can be turned into Semantic Web data and re-used.

As for the business model, it will be advertising and also subscriptions (for higher capabilities). The advertising part won't be in the first release and Twine hasn't yet decided how to run that - e.g. they may use a single ad network provider, or (as Facebook is considering) create their own ad network.

Conclusion

Overall, while the app isn't ready yet for the public, I was impressed with what I saw in Nova's demo. The proof will be in the pudding regarding whether this will be the first mainstream Semantic Web app - i.e. how much uptake it gets and whether there will be good use cases for all this semantic data. But it certainly looked like a usable and slick system - and one I'm looking forward to playing with.

10/16/2007

Mobile 2.0 collections

Written by Richard MacManus / October 15, 2007 / 0 comments

Mobile 2.0

Richard was at he Mobile 2.0 event today in San Francisco. Here are his posts:

- Mobile 2.0 - The 7th Mass Media & Business Opportunities

Rudy has been a guest author on Read/WriteWeb before and his Understanding Mobile 2.0 post from December is one of the best introductions to mobile 2.0 that you'll find. Also see: Mobile 2.0 Startup Ecosystem (Sept '07).

Next up is Tomi Ahonen, author and Mobile blogger. His latest book is called 'Digital Korea', about how South Korea established itself as a technology leader. His talk today is about mobile social networking and communities - in particular the business opportunities in Mobile 2.0.

(移动社会网络和社区,尤其是在移动2.0上的商业机会)

Tomi calls mobile "7th mass media", which he says "is as different from the Internet as television was to radio" - he's referring to things like user experience and business opportunities. His definitions of mass media: Radio was 4th, TV 5th, Internet 6th and Mobile 7th. He says mobile can do everything the previous 6 media can do, including interactivity and search of the Internet. But mobile is different from the previous 6 -- he says mobile is "the first personal mass media", it's always on, always carried, has built-in payment model, it's a creative tool at point of creative impulse and gets the most accurate audience info. He says mobile is "a far superior media experience" than the previous 6 mass medias.

(手机是第七媒体。在用户体验和商业机会上带来根本的不同。

大众媒体的定义:广播是第四代,电视第五代,互联网第六代,手机第七代,手机媒体拥有任何此前媒体的功能,包括交互性和互联网搜索。

同时,手机媒体的差异在于:手机是个人媒体。总是开机,总是携带,内置支付模块,作为创新工具,能提供最准确用户信息。)

He says mobile apps can be "magical" and discusses an example from Japan - a cameraphone OCR translator. It's from a Japanese company called MediaSeek; the product is called Kamera Jiten, and it allows cameraphone users to turn their device into a translator.

Business Opportunities in Mobile Web

Tomi then outlines some opportunities: e.g. mobile books (M-Books) are an $82M business in Japan. In Japan and South Korea, there are big opportunities for revenue - e.g. 54% of Japanese mobile phone users consume ads - and what's more 44% of them have clicked on interactive ads. Tomi says hat "advertising is becoming content", because it is relevant to mobile users. While he says this isn't a radical new idea (e.g. MTV videos in the early 80's were essentially advertisements of music products), it is something we need to adapt to more in the mobile Web era.

(Tomi概括出的机会:移动书、广告-己经变成内容。)

He talks of a new company called Blyk, which launched 24 Sept in the UK. Blyk is a new mobile network for 16 – 24s that's funded by advertising - according to the Blyk blog it's "an invitation-only mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) that links young people with brands they like and gives them free texts and minutes every month." Tomi says Blyk is a company to watch and emulate.

(谈到UK的新公司:Blyk,面向16-24岁用户的广告支持移动网络.只接受邀请的平台,连接用户和他们喜欢的品牌,并且每月送免费的话时.是一家值得关注和仿效的公司.)

He says the big brands (Coca-Cola et al) will be present in the upcoming mobile social networks. Cyworld is an early example of this.

大品牌将出现在移动社交网络上,Cyworld上己经证明.

Flirtomatic, a UK flirting service from May '06, is another good example of a mobile/social service. It gets half its income from ads, and half from personalization and gifts. Indeed the company abandoned their original subscription fee business model because of those other models. Flirtomatic is now one of Britain's leading florists, according to Tomi.

Flirtomatic有一半收入来自广告,一半来自个性化和礼物.事实上,因此,它们放弃了原来收取服务费的模式.

In summary, an excellent talk by Tomi and I learned a lot about the opportunities in the Mobile Web world. His next book btw is on the topic of the 7th Mass Media - some of the content in his talk today was from that book.

- Mobile 2.0 Launch Pad Part 1


- Mobile 2.0 Launch Pad Part 2


- Taptu Launches New Type of Mobile Search


标签: , ,

博客行动日-The Top 35 Environmental Blogs

The Top 35 Environmental Blogs

Written by Josh Catone / October 15, 2007 / 4 comments

There are hundreds, if not thousands, of blogs dedicated to the environment on the Internet. That's really no surprise given that environmental conservation is one of the most pressing issues of our time, and has become especially pertinent in recent years due to concerns about global warming and mega-hit documentaries like Former US Vice President Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth.

As part of our participation in Blog Action Day, we waded through much of the environmental blogosphere and picked out our favorites (caveat: not all of these are blogs in the strictest sense of the word, but those that aren't are generally still long-tail environmentally focused content sites). It's very likely that we've left a few of your favorites off the list, so please feel free to leave them in the comments below. Presented in no particular order:

  • TreeHugger - TreeHugger is the mother of all environmental blogs, ranking #17 on Technorati's top blogs list (which makes it at least one of the most referenced enviroblogs). It covers general environmental news, events and products.(环境博客之母,Technorati上排名17,提供环境新闻,事件,产品信息.)
  • EcoGeek - Geek chic environmental is a good way to describe EcoGeek, which writes about gadgets that are earth friendly.(生态极客的极佳体现.提供环境友好的工具.)
  • Environmental Law Prof Blog - From the always-good Law Professor Blog Network, this one deals with pressing concerns surrounding the issue of environmental law.(来自法律专家的博客网络.关注环境相关法律.)
  • New Scientist Environment Blog - Excellent environmental commentary and analysis from New Scientist magazine.(来自新科学家杂志的优秀评论和分析.)
  • AutoblogGreen - A spin-off from Weblogs Inc.'s popular Autoblog, the green version deals with cars and the environment -- think hybrids, gas consumption, alternative fuels, etc.(Weblogs Inc.网络的副刊,关注汽车,环境,还有天然气消费,替代性燃料等.)
  • Eco-worrier - Musings on the environment from a columnist at the Times of London.(来自Times of London的专栏作家的环境思考.)
  • Grist Mill - Daily environmental news delivered in blog form from Grist magazine (which is also about the environment).(来自Grist magazine的每日环境新闻.)
  • Green Car Congress - Another environmentally focused automobile blog, focusing on technology, news, and politics relating to the green mobility industry.(关注环境的汽车博客.包含技术,新闻,相关政策.)
  • Inhabitat - Generally about living a greener lifestyle, this blog often deals with subjects around green building and sustainable living.(关于绿色生活方式.)
  • Ecomoto - A two year old blog/magazine examining environmental trends.(环境趋势方面博客/杂志.)
  • The Lazy Environmentalist - The blog for a nationally syndicated (US) talk radio show about easy green living.(关于轻松绿色生活的美国广播talk show博客。)
  • Alternative Consumer - Environmentally friendly products: you want 'em and Alternative Consumer has you covered.(环境友好的产品。)
  • Teensy Green - Got kids? Then give Teensy Green a read. A blog for the environmentally aware parent.(给孩子的环境阅读材料。)
  • Haute*Nature - In their own words: "Ecologically based creative ideas, art & green products for your children, home and lifestyle... blending style with sustainability."(面向家庭、孩子、生活的,基于生态的创意、艺术、绿色产品)
  • Hippy Shopper - From the Shiny Media blog network, Hippy Shopper is about all the eco-friendly stuff you covet.(让人垂涎的生态产品。)
  • Sustainable Style - You can have your cake and eat it too, or in the case of Sustainable Style look good and do well for the environment.(你可以有自己做蛋糕和使环境更美好的生活方式 。)
  • Green Options - A great general enviroblog and community based out of Berkley, California.(来自伯克利的很棒的环境博客和社区。)
  • No Impact Man - The chronicle of a man living in New York City as he attempts to go completely zero impact (i.e., ride a bicycle everywhere, recycle everything, eat locally produced food, and so on).(生活在New York对环境没有任何不良影响的人。如骑车出行、使用循环产品、食用本地食物等。)

"You click off family’s electricity and make them go to bed at nine every night because it’s too dark to do anything else. You ban them from the elevator so they have to walk up and down nine flights of stairs. You take away their fridge so they can’t keep more than a day or two of food around the house. All this and then they turn around and say it’s life as usual?" -- No Impact Man

  • Great Green Baby - Another site for the green parent, Great Green Baby reviews eco-friendly baby products.(环境友好的儿童产品。)
  • EcoFriend - EcoFriend is a blog about all those sexy, environmentally aware products you want but can't afford.(想要但支付不起的绝妙绿色产品。)
  • ecoFabulous - Reviews of great green stuff for the house, home, and body.(家用绿色产品评论。)
  • Ecorazzi - Celebrity gossip meets environmentalism. Did you hear that Leonardo DiCaprio is building a 'green hotel' on his 104-acre private island off the coast of Belize with the owners of the Four Seasons Resort chain? No? Then read Ecorazzi.(名人八卦和环境。)
  • EcoStreet - A well-written and actively updated general evironmental news and commentary blog.(更新频繁的环境新闻和评论。)
  • Green As Thistle - Green As Thistle chronicles the progress of Vanessa, a Canadian journalist, as she tries to "spend each day, for an entire calendar year, doing one thing that betters the environment." She's on day 229 and still kicking.(加拿大记者的每日环境改善努力,已经229天并还在继续。)
  • The Green Guy - The Green Guy writes about "ethical living" and about how to go green without making drastic, life-altering changes to your routine. I just wish he'd update more (by the way, the Adam Vaughn, who writes The Green Guy, also founded another blog on our list, Hippy Shopper).(关于如何不过份改变生活的绿色道德生活方式。)
  • Mindful Momma - There are a lot of blogs out there about green parenting -- it's an entire niche unto itself -- and Mindful Momma is one of the best.(关于绿色方式养育的小市场博客中最好的。)
  • Got2BeGreen - A blog focused on all sorts a cool green technology (a recent post deals with how to power your laptop with the sun, for example).(各种绝妙的绿色技术,如最新文章说如何给笔记本用上太阳能。)
  • Triple Pundit - An intersection of the evironment and politics delivered in an interesting voice with useful commentary.

"Americans themselves don't want higher fleet standards for mileage unless they can still accelerate like Burt Reynolds in a black Trans Am with a golden eagle on the hood. So, automakers don't want higher fleet standards, because their fleet will sit on the American Car lots for longer than it does already. High mileage, room for seven and rapid acceleration are conflicting realities." -- Triple Pundit

  • Celsias - A great general blog about the environment, politics, sustainability, and green living.
  • Enviroblog - Eviroblog talks about public health in the context of environmental policy.
  • Get With Green - If you're remodeling your home or building a new one, subscribe to Get With Green to learn about all the ways you can make your living space environmentally friendly.
  • Green Thinkers - Green Thinkers is, in its own words, "an informal forum for ideas and thoughts on how to live a more green life."
  • Green Wombat - From Business 2.0, Green Wombat was a blog about business, technology, and the environment. With the closing of the magazine this month, however, its future is likely grim. Read the archives online while you still can.
  • Lighter Footstep - Lighter Footsteps is all about sustainable living and leaving less of an imprint by making greener living choices.
  • Life Goggles - Another great general green living blog, with a slight focus on TV and movies as they relate to the environment.

Bonus site: If you crave environment news from multiple sources, check out Hugg, which is like digg, but for eco-centric stories.


10/11/2007

Big Brands & Facebook

Big Brands & Facebook
Written by Sean Ammirati / October 9, 2007 / 3 comments

Charlene Li from Forrester Research gave a presentation entitled 'Big Brands & Facebook: Marketing Case Studies & Best Practices.' The theme that she came back to a few times was: Facebook marketing requires communication not advertising.

What Are Traditional Advertising Options on Facebook

Charlene's goal was to encourage the audience and advertisers (who didn't seem to be many in the audience) to think beyond traditional advertising. She started by establishing different appraoches to advertising on the Facebook platform. Specifically she outlined three approaches to buying advertising on Facebook:

  • You can purchase IAB standard ad units. As has been the case since August 2006, Microsoft handles the sale of these advertisements.
  • Another option is buying targeted messages to be placed in Facebook news feeds. According to data Charlene has received from Facebook, the click through rates on these ads are between 4 and 26 percent. While that is certainly a big range, the performance is impressive and actually closer to search advertising click through than I would have guessed.
  • Finally, any user can create purchase Facebook Flyers, which are totally self service advertisements.

How do you communicate not advertise?

Going back to Charlene's opening theme of communicating and not advertising, she revisited the statement and started exploring effective ways to communicate. She specifically talked about Sponsored Groups. For clarification, while anyone can create a Facebook Group, the sponsored groups provide additional functionality including:

  • Group page provides customized navigation, look & feel.
  • Going back to the more traditional advertising, this usually includes a significant media buy to drive traffic to the sponsored group page.

As an example, the screen shot below is the Jeep Sponsored Group on Facebook.

Sponsored Group Best Practices

Charlene laid out five best practices for sponsored groups:

  • understand how similar groups meet / don't meet the needs already
  • crate a unique experience that really is engaging people
  • enable discussion board, the wall, photos, etc ...
  • read and respond to comments
  • be transparent about your role & perspective

Brands That Can't Afford Sponsored Groups

For perspective, while this is certainly a compelling way to communicate with users, it's important to realize that only large brands and companies are able to afford creating sponsored groups. According to Charlene, the costs are usually in the six figures for a three month engagement. However, any company can setup a traditional group for no cost at all. For example, here is a link to the Read/WriteWeb Facebook Group.

Branded Applications

Charlene also touched on branded applications, although in her opinion there weren't any good case studies yet. Someone in the audience asked: "What is a good example of a facebook app that is true to its brand?" Charlene answered: "None, I keep waiting but there is a long way to go."

Conclusion

It was repeated a number of times today that it's the 'Summer of Facebook' (see Dan Farber's post). As the community continues to discuss new opportunities for building on top of the social platform of Facebook, it's important to realize that involving big brands will be crucial. Hopefully, some of these best practices will be helpful for not just the brands looking to engage, but also all of the developers looking to build those experiences.


标签: , , , ,

Are Recommendation Engines a Threat to the Long Tail?

Are Recommendation Engines a Threat to the Long Tail?
推荐系统对长尾的威胁?

Written by Marshall Kirkpatrick / October 8, 2007 / 10 comments

Two Wharton academics released an interesting paper last week that asks whether online recommendation services are a threat to the aggregate diversity of items discovered by their users. The study is titled "Blockbuster Culture's Next Rise or Fall: The Impact of Recommender Systems on Sales Diversity" and I found it via a good summary article at PaidContent this weekend.

威胁在于多样性不如来自用户的多样性。

All indications point towards a rise in importance by recommendation engines, so this argument deserves examination. From eBay's acquisition of StumbleUpon to the CBS acquisition of Last.fm to this weekend's MSNBC acquisition of Newsvine - recommendation engines are big money. We've covered quite a few startups in this space and I'm sure it will continue to grow in prominence.

从已有的系列收购案例看,推荐引擎都是大生意。而且还会继续快速发展。

Perhaps more importantly, the "Long Tail" of diverse discovery is an important part of the meritocratic and democratic promise of the new web.

可能更重要的是:来自长尾的多样性是精英和民主化对于新一代网络的承诺。

Good recommendation engines are also just plain fun.

After just a little consideration, the Wharton study seems more meaningful as a cautionary tale than as a critique of the inherent nature of recommendation engines. In discussing this with others I've found that most people swing quickly from believing the study is either obviously wrong or obviously correct. It's a more complex question than it might seem.

沃顿学者的研究更像一种警示,而不是对推荐引擎本身的批评。大家一致认为,这个问题要么是显然的错误,要么是显然的正确,换言之,它远比看起来的复杂。

Recommendation engines should strive to be smarter than simply finding that "there is a high correlation between people who liked X and people who liked Y." I would argue, for example, that recommending other users of a system and highlighting their less popular discoveries could be a good way to solve the problem. Getting it right is probably easier said than done, but it seems there's still plenty of potential for recommendation engines to expand the long tail. The study's arguments are important to consider, though.

推荐引擎应该比简单发现喜欢X的人也喜欢Y这样的简单相关更智能。比如,推荐系统的系他用户以及他们的不太流行的选择可能就是解决的好办法。说远比做容易,但这意味着,推荐引擎在扩展长尾上还有很大的发展空间。当然,学者的意见值得仔细思考。

What the Study Says

A Wharton summary of the paper excerpts the following to explain the study's conclusion: "Because common recommenders recommend products based on sales and [consumer] ratings, they cannot recommend products with limited historical data, even if they would be rated favorably," the authors write. "This can create rich-get-richer effects for popular products and vice-versa for unpopular ones, which results in less diversity."

常见的基于销售和消费的推荐系统容易造成马太效应,加剧差异。这就减少了用户选择的多样性。

There's also some discussion of the Facebook app landscape, arguably an environment where the long tail doesn't hold up. See also this related discussion at TechCrunch.

The authors argue that individual users may consistently be exposed to items that are new to them, but we're all exposed to the same new items - resulting in greater individual diversity but less aggregate diversity.

面临同样的推荐和选择,带来更多的个人多样性和更少的总体多样性。

Counter Arguments

The study includes a counter argument from Greg Linden, who helped develop Amazon's recommendation engine. Linden says "recommendation algorithms easily can be tuned to favor the back catalog -- the long tail -- as Netflix does."

来自amazon推荐算法创始人的反面意见:推荐引擎可以很容易的实现对于藏在后面的很多长尾数据的发现,如同netflix已经实现的。

The role played by early adopters, "cool hunters", taste makers and advertisers relative to recommendation engines would also be interesting to look at.

My personal fantasy for recommendation engines is this: I want del.icio.us to look at my bookmarks and recommend not just other URLs I might be interested in, but also other users whose tastes are similar to mine. I'd also like to see which of those recommended users tend to find items of interest earliest, so I can prioritize following them.

Repetition, perhaps another way to describe popularity, will probably always drive consumption - but if I can see all of the things that are discovered by people recommended to me then I can use their less popular picks as guidance.

If other metrics are considered, and surely they are in any sophisticated recommendation engine, then what's called "Attention Data" can help augment recommendations beyond merely what's most popular among people with similar interests. (Need an intro to Attention Data? Here's one that could work for you.)

其他纬度引入,复杂的推荐系统,比如注意力数据?

It would be ill advised to reject recommendation engines as dumb popularity machines based on this study, but it is also important to take its arguments into consideration.

我的思考:

问题是,所谓的注意力数据和销售数据有本质的差异么?

问题是,长尾本身存在么?或者存在新生的小力量们能把握的价值么?我们一直都是个巨头主导的社会,小的创新企业有什么法宝能够轻易取代传统巨头的力量么?好的推荐系统是个高技术含量和海量数据积累的高门槛系统。这些没有长期的技术和历史数据的积累是不可能的。新来的革命者们拿什么颠覆他们?

问题是,复杂多维的推荐系统,没有海量计算能力,没有深厚的技术功底实现不来。看看各大厂商的数据挖掘产品都卖给谁了,就知道应用这个东西需要什么样的门槛。更不用说去开发一个好的结合特定应用场景的、多维度的、面向海量大众的推荐引擎了。

怎么办?

用户不知道后台的复杂,仅仅是一个感觉,感觉推荐是否准确。而感觉有很多种纬度可以满足,不一定是多个纬度同时具备才行。

人的需求其实是很柔性和多面的。满足某一个侧面并不是太难。

把很多个纬度简单放在一起的结果可能并不令人满意。真正设计好不同纬度之间的关系就是一件相当不容易的事情。那么先拆开来做怎么样呢?



标签: ,

10/10/2007

Thinking in new system design and implementation

  • 基本思路:
结合自己以前曾经思考的,关于web看开发模式的沉淀、关于前后台配合的沉淀、关于自底向上和自顶向下模式的沉淀,是时候可以尝试:形成基本思路并且经过审核之后,分拆交给下面的兄弟们设计。最后汇总讨论审核修改定稿再实施。
只要我们能够很好的作到后知后觉,也能有很好的成功概率。当然,这需要长期的成功实践的修炼。
  • 好处:
  1. 对上:避免形成只有一个方案的弊端;并且形成没有对比的以为很糟糕或者很简单的偏见。
  2. 对下:避免只是服从,发展他们的能力和动力,未来的配合上更加主动;并且避免以为很简单和很糟糕的偏见和抱怨对团队士气的破坏。
  3. 对己:腾出时间综合考虑和寻找工具等全面把握,形成自己的沉淀。利于自己的成长和团队的成长。
  4. 对管理:分出个人各种事情上不同水平,利于优化资源配置。
  • 坏处:
  1. 整体时间看起来肯定会比目前这种上面统一设计好了,下面执行的方式慢。但是考虑架构师等上面单点失效,以及未来需要改动时候配合的主动度来看,长远看未见得低效。
  2. 可能显示自己没有用处了的尴尬。但是不是说,最好的管理者是对于下属的培养和离开后依然运转如故么?那就放开了去尝试。最关键是自己首先要放开这个心胸。
  • 综合看:
优点多于劣势,值得尝试。
剩下就是具体操作的时间和火候的把握,中间过程的追踪和监控。
具体可以在设计框架讨论审核通过后确定时间线和任务切分线。



  • 关于高级工程师的思路:

本来希望在同一个水平线上同步走,以他的兼职4小时加上周末,和他们的所谓全职的甚至要熬夜成果对比。但是仔细想来,这么做对于他的成长不见得是个好事情。还是应该交给他便于独立完成,而且对他的能力是个简单挑战的内容来完成。这中间当然不排除承担部分整体编程,从而得到管理应有的对比分析数据。

标签: , ,

10/09/2007

How To Create a Web App

How To Create a Web App
Written by Matt Rogers / October 4, 2007 / 27 comments
这是关于指导如何创业系列的第二篇了。虽然阅读起来似乎都是老一套的东西,没什么了不起的新发现。但是在重新阅读的过程中却发现,自己总是在执行中遇到各种纷繁干扰的时候,有时候会偏离了应该的步骤和流程以及方法,失了节奏,失了方寸,可见执行这件事情,还真不是说说这么简单的。所以再次依据这样整理清晰的指导,记录下来作为未来可能凌乱时候的参考。

本章的关键在于:
  1. mockup的创建
  2. 产品设计规范的撰写

似乎恰恰是国内的团队比较忽视的部分,或者是喜欢随行所欲成分比较多的部分。事实上,正是产品经理或者核心设计者不能转嫁给开发人员的部分。尤其是小团队的时候,很多时候甚至是ceo亲自把关这些设计才行,但是他们往往大而化之并没有真正起到应有的作用。这件事情,开始怎么重视都不过分,否则将是一系列人的重复劳动和士气大伤。

但是,如果有合适的小团队,规范之类的灵活,可能是个优势,但无论如何,好的追踪工具还是不可少的。回头结合docbook细看一下。

This is the second post in our series on how to run a startup and develop a product. In part one, How To Bootstrap Your Startup, we outlined the process of bootstrapping your company into existence. In this post, we show you how to go from idea to specified product. By the end of it, you’ll know how to build a mock-up of your business idea and write the most important document you’ll write for the company: your functional specification.

For a simple system the process outlined in this post should take you a month. For a complex build, there will be a lot more research and your mock-up and functional specification will be big - so budget 3 months of full-time work.

A Word on Strategy

Every good business begins with a solid understanding of the proposition and business plan - in short, your strategy. It's worth reading Guy Kawasaki’s 10/20/30 Rule of Powerpoint; it’ll provide you with an idea of what should be included in your business plan and strategy. Your actual business plan should be in a lot more detail than Guy describes in his post – his rules relate only to how the results of your work should be presented, not how the content should be derived.

From Strategy to Development

Whether you are out-sourcing or developing in-house there are two ways to build a system:

  1. Give your developers a rough idea of what to build and keep iterating the design as they build it;
  2. Give your developers detailed documentation of what to build.

When out-sourcing, the second option is always cheaper, faster and lower risk. Not only that, but the end product will be better architected, more coherent and easier to maintain. Given this, it might surprise you to learn that the vast majority of out-sourced developments do option 1. Don’t do it - option 2 is more work at the start but entirely worth it. The basic premise of option 2 is simple: instead of relying on your developers to think through your business properly, you take responsibility yourself. You’ll do this in two ways - firstly by creating a mock-up and then by documenting that mock-up in a functional specification.

应该是你自己而不是依赖你的开发人员来设计详细的应用特性。

步骤:1:mockup、2详细的功能说明

Your mock-up

The first thing you need to do is get yourself tooled up is to create your mock-up. This requires a visual web-editor (assuming you’re building a web-application). Personally I use Visual Web-Developer from Microsoft - it’s free and powerful. However, it is also very complicated to use, as it’s a full web-development environment. If you don’t know how to code in C# then it is probably easier and faster to use Dreamweaver, Frontpage or the freeware KompoZer.

A mock-up is a run through of your site and the learning process you’ll go through as you create it will be exceptionally revealing. It sounds simple, but when you start to put pen to paper you’ll very quickly find that it isn’t. Your mock-up is the first stage of building a real understanding of what your system has to do. The mock-up should contain no functionality and doesn’t need the final graphic design. Its objective is to help your developers understand what information the system should capture, when it should be displayed and what it should do when the user "does stuff" on your site.

关于是不是把美工设计尽量考虑进去可能是一个见仁见智的作法。不少人除了那mockup进行开发,更重要的可能是拿它跟投资人、合作伙伴等商谈用的。这个时候,可能mockup的美观或者一个过得去的模版之类就是很重要的事情了。

To give you an idea of how it should look and feel, I’ve created a small mock-up of an email service for you to peruse. Granted it is a mock-up for a terrible email service, but it should serve the purpose of detailing what a mock-up should be. When you’re building the mock-up, remember to include an admin interface – believe it or not, it is easy to forget to include this. Make sure you think through how you will administer the system, handle customer queries, examine user accounts, run reports on user numbers and website traffic, etc.

这一点尤其应该引起广大的2.0们的注意。至少在最开始2.0风生水起的时候,太多的创业者声称自己不需要后台管理,不要监控,只要民主的2.0,可是事实上,最后大家还是都回去了。关于这一点,社会改良者们可能早已经实践过了,没有绝对的自由社区。这样的社会学的前车之鉴值得2.0们好好思考和体会

Only when you’ve completed your mock-up and been through several iterations with any other business partners, are you ready to move onto the next stage - documenting it in a functional specification

相比较而言,国内的团队习惯开始走的很快。这里的说法是,只有反复讨论过mockup之后才开始写详细的设计规范书。而国内团队更加倾向于,mockup甚至还没有全部出来,就已经开始编码。尤其是根本听不得什么对于最开始自己充满热情设计出来的东西的任何反对或者质疑?没有讨论的胸怀。但是,匆匆上马之后,面对惨淡经营,才慢慢开始学会听人家的说法和建议,可是往往内外伤都已经不少了。痛惜,前车之鉴也!

面对若干次这样的事情,总免不了生出秦灭六国,又被人所灭的悲叹。但是为什么历史总会重演?每次担任首任的那一位,难道总是要这样的强硬态度才能足以领导么?这里有着人性的天然弱点难以逾越么?还是勇于创业者往往多独揽大包的个性?

The Functional Specification

This document is the most important document that you’ll write for your business. It will tell the developer exactly what your system should do. It will contain every page you’ve created in your mock-up; and for each screenshot it’ll explain what’s happening on the screen, what the user can do from there and what the system should be doing in the background. The document is called a "functional" specification because it should describe "what" your system does, rather than "how" it should be done.

不知道有多少人会认同这里所说的产品功能说明是最为重要的一份文档。国内的团队可能习惯于把用于融资的那份商业计划书视为最重要的一份。虽然那里也会包含产品、技术方面的东西,但是实在是一个很high-level的说明和描述,最多加一个moadmap,完全不能用来和这里的细致程度相比。

The first thing you need to do is get tooled up. Write the document in Word (or an equivalent). You’ll need to include a lot of screenshots - for this I’ve always found the Firefox plug-in Pearl Crescent Page Saver invaluable, because it lets you take screenshots of a whole webpage (not just the part which is displayed). Secondly you need some software to create flow charts in. I used WizFlow before we bought Visio from Microsoft. Wizflow is easy to use and does most of the stuff you’ll need.

工欲善其事,必先利其器。个人体会,mindmanager或者freemind可能比visio更加方便。除非你需要更加专业的面向技术层面的结合,比如生成数据库设计之类等等。可事实上,如果需要完成这些,另有更加专业的工具更加方便。不知道是不是我用visio不够专业,总之,感觉viso在这里有点鸡肋。如果我片面了,希望方家指点。

When you set out to write your functional spec, you need to follow a clear structure so that your developers understand what you are saying. The structure which I always use is:

  • Confidentiality notice – make it clear that this document is your property and you are serious about controlling your IP(有言在先,很重要)
  • Introduction – you should describe your company, the structure of the document and a one paragraph overview of your system(公司、文档结构、关于系统的一段简短描述)
  • User scenarios – Include at least 5 clearly written accounts of what a user might do on your system. These serve to ensure that everyone who ends up on the development team knows what the system is for. Write them as a chronological story.(用户场景:包含至少5个清晰的应用场景的描述。按照时间顺序,讲故事的方式给出。非常好的建议。不少团队这里的工作也不算到位。他们会有基本的想法和描述,但是没有清晰说明、没有时间衔接、没有足够数量的验证。)
  • Overview of the system –five page description of what you system should do; keep it very high-level and include a system overview diagram (see below).(5页纸的很高层次的概要性描述。最关键的是,应该包含系统的结构图。)
  • End-user functionality – a section for each system module (see below) in the system overview. Each section should include several sub-sections for each possible action within that module.(用户功能说明,包含每部分的模块拆解)
  • Administrator functionality –section for each admin module and sub-sections for each possible action.(管理功能说明,同样包含子模块的拆解)
  • Non-functional requirements – design integration, SEO, availability and uptime requirements, scalability requirements and load calculation, data validators, security and back-up and the development platform (if you have one).(非功能性要求:设计的整合、SEO、可用性、可扩展性、负载计算、数据校验、安全和备份、开发平台选择等等。事实上,这部分是设计中非常重要的一部分。太多的团队在这部分语焉不详,而后手忙脚乱,包括自己的团队在这里也是没有做足功课。这里实际上要很好的经验支撑才能完成的。不知道国外的团队上,怎么保证这部分的有效性。抑或者,就是一个机制?毕竟这里的要求可能会对底层的架构带来根本性的改变。而开始就预估一个合适的架构支撑规模,多少是比较困难的。)

Clearly in a blog post I cannot cover each of these in detail, but one element which is particularly important is your system overview diagram. Whilst the developers might not build the system in this way, it is useful for you to mentally split your system up into modules. I’ve done a simple example using the email system used in the mock-up:

System Overview

In the above simple example, the four boxes are the four major sections within the "End-user functionality" section of the functional specification. Within each section you should cover, with precision, what all of the possible actions are and what the system should do in each case. From this it is easy to build out your document structure. So for "user access" we’d need a sub-section on "Create account", "Log in", "Forgot password", etc.

Start by building out the document structure. Only when that is complete should you start filling out all the details. This way, you’ll slowly build up your document without feeling overwhelmed by it. When you are writing one section, you’ll get ideas for other sections – when this happens go to the relevant section and add the thought in square brackets so that you know what to cover when you get to it. Trust me on this: only one person can author a functional specification. More than one person can review it, but only one person can author.

这里显然都是充满了经验过后才有的操作性很强的建议。

通过一个小小的标示,不断地完善过程得到一个合适的追踪;

通过提纲挈领在先,避免让自己陷入一种难以完成的绝望中从而放弃这一重要工作;

通过合作中得来的教训告诉大家:唯一的一个人来负责撰写!但是应该多人、多轮讨论和完善。这一点对于国内团队的氛围,可能会是一个至关重要的拐点。也许很多成败的关键在于这种协作的方式和流程。

A Word on AJAX

You seemingly can’t launch a new web site these days without using a few dollops of AJAX here and there. However, you can’t incorporate AJAX into your mock-up, as there’s no functionality. Where there is a functional requirement for AJAX, you’ll need to use a new page in your mock-up (the complete opposite of what AJAX gives you). Therefore you need to explicitly include your AJAX requirements in your functional spec. Personally I insert my AJAX requirements in a box, so they are clear to the developers.

用特殊的标记给出Ajax的要求,换句话说,更加重要的是这里的思路。给不同的,难于在mockup上展示的内容以不同的标记,形成自己的规范和习惯,减少沟通的成本和维护的成本。这才是核心。

Container Documents

In parallel to writing your functional spec, start the following container documents:(需要并行考虑的一揽子文档。)

  • Future ideas for the development of the system;(系统的未来功能扩展。其实把它写出来,然后分期实现也是常见的做法)
  • Legal points you want to make sure that are included in the terms and conditions;(相关法律条款。可能考虑的人很少。很多都是到最后匆匆加上一些用户条款之类。甚至可能没有好好考虑关于内容上纠纷的处理。)
  • Any design thoughts (include here screenshots of website designs you like);(任何设计上的思路。自己的经验来看,至少应该考虑不同应用场景之下的一些系统导语和指引之类。应该属于UI和UE一类,事实上,这部分的重要性不用再强调了,大家忽视的程度也不用再重复了。白鸦好像有一篇文章专门说这个事情。一个小姑娘做整理工作和初稿之类可能还行,但是,整体基调和氛围的把握,恐怕不是一个小姑娘能够把握的。包含一些你喜欢的站点的截图也是很重要的。因为,别人可能会改版,自己可能会遗忘。以前总认为自己整理资料还比较靠谱,事实上,还是有很多需要改进的空间。)
  • Patent ideas;(专利的考虑。尤其是有些特殊的想法和应用模式的时候。算法似乎在国内的环境下容易一点,但是其他,国内环境就实在有点让人摇头了。大家有什么好的建议在这里么?)
  • Marketing ideas.(市场方面想法。这一点非常重要。毕竟很多市场的点子可能就出现在你设计系统的时候。往往后续设计细节多起来的时候,会慢慢遗忘掉。而且,如果建立这么一个沟通和共享的平台和文档结构,便于团队之间的沟通。往往它山之石可以攻玉。)

As you are working through your functional spec, you’ll come up with lots of ideas in all of these categories (and possible more). Make sure you’ve got simple lists you can just drop them into – get them out of your head and into the computer as fast as you can, so you maintain a clear mental space free from idea clutter.

相信任何有真实经验的人都会非常赞同这里的说法。设计的过程中会有大量的新的点子和想法不断冒出来。如何有效地记录和整理他们就是一个非常重要的问题了。不知道大家都是用什么工具解决这个问题?有的思路之间需要相互妥协,因为冲突;有的思路相互补充,因为相关;有的思路需要暂且放弃,因为整体的考虑;有的思路需要延后细化,因为周期的控制;有的思路需要讨论,因为太粗;。。。这么多的思路和未来可能真正实施的模块之间有不同的关系,如何管理和追踪呢?希望方家指教合适的工具。目前自己完全是靠脑子和简单的工作日志管理,实在还是比较落后。

Conclusion

Creating a quality functional specification is a time-consuming - but essential - job. Take your time and do a quality job. Don’t be surprised if the document ends up being hundreds of pages long. But it vastly increases your chance of delivery.

In the next post I’ll be looking at how to build a long-list of developers, run an RFI to create a developer short-list, run an RFQ to select a vendor and a spare, and then what to look out for in the development contract.

最后整理一下这里提到的工具:
  1. mockup的制作工具。国内的不少人缺少这个技能,难以驾驭即使是DreamWaver这样的工具或者是效率太低,又没有什么不用编码的,快捷简单的页面制作工具提供呢?
  2. 流程图的工具
  3. 截图的工具:Firefox plug-in Pearl Crescent Page Saver
  4. mockup展示工具:mock-up of an email service ?(我理解对了么?需要研究一下)
我想,还应该有的工具:
  1. 文档管理工具:比如docbook之类。(是不是最适用,我自己也还需要再验证比较,希望方家有更多好的推荐)
  2. 项目前期的管理工具。主要是各种思路和未来设计模块之间的关系和演变的追踪。寻找中,希望方家推荐。
  3. 多人协作的工具?如果是参考这里唯一作者的原则,似乎也不必要了。

标签: , , ,

10/08/2007

疑似故人来

查找最新2007互联网大会资料的时候,无意间看到一个看似面熟的CEO头像。
看那头像,我很是愣了一会儿神,怎么看都像是大学时候的学弟,同时是老乡,还曾经同在校刊呆过,还同在大学时候就一起在项目中呆过,还曾一起讨论过口琴和笛子等等。
51cto也是我还算熟悉的技术类网站,难道他们的ceo居然是我的一个熟人?
于是,开始网络搜索,事实逐渐证明了自己的想法。正是故人来。

才知道毕业后居然一直没有跳过槽,然后一跳槽就是拿着千万投资的自立门户。颇为让人敬佩,也是非常符合当年他的沉稳脾性。很为他高兴。

仔细想想这样的发展历程,不同人的不同经历,也非常类似网站或者企业的发展历程。无论是产品设计还是市场扩展,打一枪换一个地方还是咬定青山不放松,各有各的况味。战略有时候看起来很远,走下来发现其实很近。在没有特别清晰思路的时候,很多时候,人的个性或者企业的文化或者气质就决定了它可能的方向和策略。

标签: , ,